Belgian 2024 local elections followed the June federal, regional, and European elections, further shaping the political landscape ahead of crucial federal coalition talks.
The strong performances by key parties in these elections— right-wing N-VA’s dominance in Antwerp, centre left Vooruit’s gains in several cities, and centrist CD&V’s strong rural presence—provide these parties with a stronger negotiating position for the upcoming federal coalition talks. In Wallonia, however, centre right MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez failed to challenge the dominance of centre left PS in major cities, but still shows an increase in many cities together with Les Engagés.
Local elections in Flanders
The far-right Vlaams Belang’s Forza Ninove made history by securing an absolute majority in Ninove, allowing them to appoint the city’s mayor and govern without the need for a coalition. Despite this major victory, the cordon sanitaire—a political strategy to isolate Vlaams Belang from forming partnerships with other parties—remains firmly in place, as mainstream parties continue to reject collaboration.
In Antwerp, the communist party PVDA/PTB saw notable gains, securing 20% of the vote. However, the ruling coalition led by incumbent mayor Bart De Wever managed to increase its share and maintain its position as the dominant political force in the city. Consequently, despite PVDA/PTB’s progress, their involvement in Antwerp’s government remains unlikely.
In these local elections, CD&V emerged as the leading party in terms of delivering the most mayors across Flanders, reinforcing its reputation as a favorite among local voters. Close behind were Open VLD and N-VA, with Vooruit managing to secure wins in two major cities.
Although there were high expectations for Vlaams Belang and PVDA to make significant seat gains, this did not fully materialize. However, Vlaams Belang did grow compared to the 2018 elections, particularly with its historic majority in Ninove. The cordon sanitaire remains unbroken, as other parties continue to refuse coalition negotiations with the far-right. In Antwerp, PVDA achieved a solid 20% of the vote but still fell far short of N-VA’s commanding 37%, limiting their political influence in the city.
Voter turnout was lower than usual, with only 60-70% of eligible voters participating due to the removal of compulsory voting for the Belgian 2024 local elections, with particularly low turnout seen in poorer, more diverse urban areas.
Meanwhile, Groen’s popularity continues to decline, reflecting a broader trend also seen with ECOLO in Wallonia.
Local Elections in Wallonia
For the local elections in Wallonia, Bouchez’s MR and Les Engagés were unable to replicate their landslide success in June. The PS (Socialist Party) remained the dominant force, winning a majority in key cities such as Charleroi, Liège, and Mons. Of the 20 largest Walloon cities, PS will lead 10, just one fewer than in 2018.
Maxime Prévot’s Les Engagés saw strong results in Wallonia, particularly in Namur, where Prévot secured a dominant victory (43.4%). Les Engagés saw significant growth in Liège (+6.3 points), Charleroi (+12.8), and Brussels (+2.7). Meanwhile, MR’s Bouchez performed well in his party’s stronghold of Walloon Brabant. However, his ambitions to challenge PS in major cities like Charleroi, Liège, and Mons were largely unsuccessful, with PS maintaining its lead in those areas. Although MR did make gains in those cities (MR improved its position in Liège (+2 points), Charleroi (+7), Mons (+7), and Brussels (+7)), Bouchez’s silence on election night suggests that his hopes of leveraging another “landslide” to push for a stronger position in federal negotiations may have been dampened.
The PTB, which was expected to deliver high scores and potentially secure an absolute majority in two cities, fell short of expectations.
ECOLO, like its Flemish counterpart Groen, continues to lose ground, even losing control of Louvain-la-Neuve.
Local Elections in Brussels
In Brussels, the left performed well, with PS winning in seven out of 19 communes, a solid result. PTB also performed well and could potentially join the coalition in Molenbeek. Meanwhile, Team Fouad Ahidar entered several local councils, pulling voters largely from PTB.
On the right, the MR and Engagés cartels were successful and can be pleased with their results.
ECOLO only emerged as the top party in Ixelles, though it remains uncertain whether they will be able to deliver the mayor. Défi, on the other hand, suffered heavy losses, nearly disappearing from the political landscape, except for holding on in Auderghem.
Federal government negotiations
The Belgian local elections typically focus on community-level issues, yet the 2024 results occurred in the midst of stalled federal negotiations, making the national implications particularly significant. The formation talks for Belgium’s federal government had officially been paused since late August due to disagreements over fiscal policy.
Now, the Arizona coalition parties (N-VA, Vooruit, CD&V, MR, and Les Engagés) have regained a strong mandate thanks to solid showings in the local polls. Federal formateur (lead negotiator) Bart De Wever’s (N-VA) has advanced behind the scenes on a new “supernote” (draft coalition agreement) and without major disruptions in the parties’ powerplay, the show can go on. The media’s attention will turn to De Wever again.
Wealth Tax Debate
CD&V leader Sammy Mahdi, invigorated by his party’s local election success, intends to use this momentum to push for the introduction of a wealth tax in the Arizona coalition negotiations. The previous round of federal talks collapsed due to disagreements over fiscal policy, particularly the contentious proposal for a capital gains tax. MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez has been a vocal opponent, asserting that he did not win the elections “to accept new taxes.” Now, however, Bouchez faces heightened opposition—not just from Vooruit’s Conner Rousseau, but also from Mahdi, who is now positioning himself as a key advocate for the wealth tax. Although Bouchez made gains in the Belgian 2024 local elections, his influence has not surged enough to prevent the debate from intensifying as federal negotiations resume.
Delays and EU deadlines
The Belgian 2024 local election results remove any excuse to delay federal formation talks further, with expectations of a compromise by November. De Wever himself has stressed the urgency of submitting a budget proposal to the European Commission, given that Belgium’s National Bank recently highlighted the need for urgent budgetary reforms. This time, however, reforms are likely to focus on spending cuts rather than tax increases, similar to the austerity policies of the 1980s.
These developments come at a critical time. Belgium’s budget deficit is projected to exceed the EU’s 3% limit, with a potential deficit of 4.7% of GDP by 2025.
The European Commission has granted Belgium more time to submit its budget due to the ongoing political situation, but the country must still present a credible fiscal plan. The longer it takes to form a federal government, the more difficult it will be to implement the necessary reforms to meet EU requirements. Indeed, negotiators hope to form a government by December in order for the budget to be approved by the federal Chamber of Representatives before the end of the year and avoid unnecessary delay in rectifying the country’s finances.
Following his victory in Antwerp, De Wever is now the frontrunner for the mayoral position. However, this role is incompatible with his ambitions to become Prime Minister. Following De Wever, he will remain focused on securing the premiership in a federal government tasked with implementing significant socio-economic reforms, guided by the ‘Supernote,’ which served as the basis for federal government negotiations.
Climate, cli-what?
Belgium’s commitments to sustainability and climate action are under threat. Without a federal government to coordinate national policy, progress on the European Green Deal and climate targets could stall. Moreover, the Greens’ influence has further declined this year with bad results in both June and October results. Both new governments in Flanders and Wallonia have already been criticised by their respective oppositions that they are marginalising green objectives. Competitiveness is the new buzzword.
The outcome of the Belgian 2024 local elections could impact the direction of the country’s transport and digital infrastructure policies. In Brussels, for example, the “Good Move” plan—aimed at reducing car traffic and promoting sustainable mobility—has faced resistance from not only Vlaams Belang but also traditional French-speaking parties involved in coalition talks, such as MR, Les Engagés, and PS, which support more business and car-friendly policies. With the weakening influence of green parties, the implementation of a more restrictive Low Emission Zone now appears to be delayed.
Looking ahead
In conclusion, the Belgian 2024 local elections have provided the Arizona coalition with enough momentum to continue negotiations and potentially form a centrist federal government. With key challenges ahead, including fiscal reforms, energy transition, and digital infrastructure development, the focus will now shift back to federal priorities. The electoral breathing space afforded to N-VA, Vooruit, CD&V, MR and Les Engagés by the voters gives them a firmer foundation on which to move forward, avoiding further delays as they aim to meet EU budgetary requirements and address critical national policy issues.
With the EU is keeping a close eye on Belgium’s budget and climate commitments, the stakes for the next federal government are high. Whether Belgium can successfully navigate this period of political fragmentation will depend on the ability of political leaders to bridge their ideological differences for the greater good and for the sake of a country that desperately needs strong leadership, a clear regulatory framework and more attractive investment environment.
As for the rise of the extremes, it remains to be seen whether Vlaams Belang’s victory in Ninove can materialise in inspiring leadership.
Will Ninove open the door for further cities or even the Flemish Region at the next elections?
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